Is the risk really 30/60%?

Newcomer introductions, personal anecdotes, caregiver issues, lab results, and n=1 experimentation.
Post Reply
Chrisweides
Contributor
Contributor
Posts: 51
Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2022 8:32 am

Is the risk really 30/60%?

Post by Chrisweides »

Hello,

On your page and in other resources, I read that for heterozygotic APOE4 carriers, the risk of developing Alzheimers is 30% and for homozygotic, 60%, both females. In some resources I read that its “four times higher” for me (E3E4).

Now what I would like to know is, is this reall so? Are these studies better than a lot of others? Did they evaluate a group of people with all gene types and oversaw them for a coule of years/decades? Or did they deduct from the oercentage of carriers in the diagnosed population and how the genes are distributed in the general population?

Can we maybe relax a bit because the studies set the risk a bit high? Not that I recommend relaxing in prevention, but in stress.

Best

Chris
51 years old. APO E3/4. Mother, grandmother and great grandmother had/are starting with dementia. Afflicted with anxiety disorder atm. Very eager to save brain and live a long healthy life. Grateful to you all for your knowledge and kindness!
User avatar
TheresaB
Mod
Mod
Posts: 1607
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2016 9:46 am
Location: Front Range, CO

Re: Is the risk really 30/60%?

Post by TheresaB »

Chrisweides wrote: Fri Sep 16, 2022 11:35 pm On your page and in other resources, I read that for heterozygotic APOE4 carriers, the risk of developing Alzheimers is 30% and for homozygotic, 60%, both females. In some resources I read that its “four times higher” for me (E3E4).

Now what I would like to know is, is this reall so?
I don't pay attention to such numbers. They sound like someone knows what they're talking about, but just how accurate can the numbers possibly be? For one thing, they're based on historical data. Also, such studies/statistics are largely formulated from studies performed on white folks of European background, other races are woefully underrepresented, and the results based on race, ethnicity, where in the world a person lives, do vary. For more info, visit the wiki Non-white or non-European descent.

These stats don't take into account the other genes that influence ApoE4 both for better and worse. There are other environmental, dietary, epigenetic, and lifestyle factors that aren't accounted for.

That is not to say I dismiss those statistics wholesale. But what does the 30% and 60% mean? I've heard it postulated that if everyone, not just APOE4s, lived long enough, we'd all develop Alzheimer's.

I just boil it down to one ε4 elevates the risk and 2 ε4s really elevate the risk.
-Theresa
ApoE 4/4
Chrisweides
Contributor
Contributor
Posts: 51
Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2022 8:32 am

Re: Is the risk really 30/60%?

Post by Chrisweides »

Thank you That is a sensible approach.

What sometimes helps me is turning the numbers around and appropriately modify them. So lets say I am an E4, I would in theory have a 30% risk. With good lifestyle choices, I can maybe shave that to 15% lifetime risk. That would mean I have a 85% chance of living a cognitively healthy life until the bell. With two copies, it would still be 70% - and maybe good lifestyle even cuts the risk more than half.
That doesnt sound so bad anymore.
51 years old. APO E3/4. Mother, grandmother and great grandmother had/are starting with dementia. Afflicted with anxiety disorder atm. Very eager to save brain and live a long healthy life. Grateful to you all for your knowledge and kindness!
Post Reply